In October 2024, the price of gold futures for delivery in October continuously set new historical highs. On October 18th, the spot gold price in London broke through $2,720 per ounce, and the New York futures gold price rose to $2,736. As of October 23rd, the spot gold price once again reached a historical high of over $2,760 per ounce during the North American trading session.
1. October 21st:
- The main gold futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 1.22%, achieving an "8-day winning streak", with a year-to-date increase of over 28%. During the night session, the domestic gold futures prices continued to rise upon opening.
- In terms of international gold futures, as of 21:00 Beijing time, the COMEX gold futures price set a new high, reporting $2,753 per ounce. However, the spot gold price fell by 0.06% at the end of the day, reporting $2,719.76 per ounce.
2. October 22nd:
- At the close in New York, spot gold rose by 1.07%, reporting $2,748.88 per ounce, and at 04:57 Beijing time, it refreshed the historical high to $2,749.03.
- The COMEX gold futures increased by 0.87%, reporting $2,762.60 per ounce, and after the close, during the electronic trading session at 03:59, it refreshed the historical high to $2,763.20.
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The factors driving the continuous innovation of gold futures prices mainly include the intensification of global geopolitical risks, the traditional monetary attributes of gold, the rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the strong demand for gold purchases by central banks worldwide.
1. Safe-haven attribute drive: The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have increased market uncertainty. Investors, seeking to hedge risks, have increased their demand for gold investments. The significant divergence in various public opinion polls and the increased uncertainty of election outcomes have made the gold-buying strategy, which hedges against risks, more favored.
2. Monetary policy expectations: The market expects central banks worldwide to continue easing monetary policies. Last week, the European Central Bank conducted its third interest rate cut of the year, and the market is betting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in November. Entering a low-interest-rate environment globally is beneficial for the non-interest-bearing asset gold, and after the Federal Reserve shifts to a more accommodative monetary policy, it enhances the appeal of gold to Western investors.3. Global Central Bank Gold Purchases: The gold purchasing actions of global central banks are a significant factor in supporting gold prices over the long term. At a recent discussion held by the London Bullion Market Association, insiders from central banks such as Mongolia, the Czech Republic, and Mexico indicated that the role of gold as a reserve asset in global foreign exchange reserves will continue to strengthen.