Recently, the gold market has experienced a significant uptrend, attracting widespread attention from global investors. The following analysis is based on the latest data to explore the reasons for the rise in gold prices and predict future trends.

Current Overview of International Gold Prices

As of October 22, 2024, the international gold price was reported at $2,720.53 per ounce, up about 10% from a month ago. This increase has sparked further interest and discussion among investors in the gold market.

Global Economic Uncertainty

Global economic uncertainty is one of the main drivers of the rise in gold prices. With the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic and uneven economic recovery in various countries, investors are concerned about the future economic outlook. In this context, gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, has attracted a large influx of funds. According to the latest report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economic growth forecast for 2024 has been revised down from 3.5% to 3.2%, further intensifying market unease.

Advertisement

Inflation Pressure

As central banks adopt loose monetary policies to address economic challenges, increased inflationary pressure has also driven up gold prices. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.7% year-on-year in September 2024, exceeding market expectations. This inflationary environment has prompted investors to turn to gold to maintain purchasing power.

Geopolitical Risks

Geopolitical risks are also an important factor driving up gold prices. Recently, tensions in the Middle East have escalated, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine shows no signs of easing, and the European energy crisis continues to brew. These uncertainties have increased the market's demand for safe-haven assets, further pushing up gold prices.

Weakening Dollar

The weakening of the U.S. dollar has also contributed to the rise in gold prices. As the dollar depreciates, gold becomes more attractive as an alternative investment, leading to increased demand and higher prices.The weakening of the US dollar has fueled the rise in gold prices. Since the beginning of 2024, the US Dollar Index has fallen by about 3%. Gold is typically priced in US dollars, and when the dollar depreciates, the cost for investors holding other currencies to buy gold decreases, thereby increasing the demand for gold.

Investor Sentiment and Market Expectations

Recent market surveys indicate that many investors hold a pessimistic view of the future economic situation, and this sentiment is reflected in the gold market. According to survey data from Bloomberg, more than 60% of respondents believe that gold prices will continue to rise in the next three months.

Technical Analysis

From a technical analysis perspective, gold prices have recently successfully broken through the key resistance level of $3,000, showing a strong upward momentum. Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Averages (MA) also support the expectation of a continued rise in gold prices.

Future Outlook

Combining the above factors, gold prices may continue to rise in the coming period. Here are a few key points:

1. Economic Data: If economic data from the world's major economies continue to be poor, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset will continue to increase.

2. Central Bank Policies: The direction of monetary policies of central banks around the world will directly affect gold prices, especially the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike policy.

3. Geopolitical Situations: Any new geopolitical tensions could drive gold prices even higher.Conclusion

At present, international gold prices are continuously rising driven by multiple factors. Economic uncertainty, inflation, geopolitical risks, a weakening US dollar, and investor sentiment all contribute to making gold the focus of market attention. In the future, as the global economic situation changes, fluctuations in gold prices are expected to become more intense.

Investors, when facing such a complex market environment, should remain rational and allocate assets reasonably according to their own risk tolerance and investment objectives, while also managing risks effectively.